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Conflict escalation during neutral and biased humanitarian military interventions

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  • Luqman Saeed

    (University of Ulster, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK)

Abstract

This article considers the effects of humanitarian military interventions (HMIs) on conflict in the countries in which they have been used. Theoretically, neutral HMIs, in which interveners target all violent actors, are expected to have a pacifying effect on conflict intensity by increasing the cost of violence for all parties—while biased HMIs can escalate conflict intensity, by reducing the cost of violence and so encouraging the supported parties to become more violent. The empirical results show that neutral HMIs do seem to lead to lower conflict intensity in the targeted countries, relative to other conflict-affected countries. Anti-rebels HMIs are observed to escalate conflict both in the short and the long run, while the evidence for anti-government HMIs is mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Luqman Saeed, 2022. "Conflict escalation during neutral and biased humanitarian military interventions," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 19-31, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:2:p:19-31
    DOI: 10.15355/epsj.17.2.19
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    File URL: https://www.epsjournal.org.uk/index.php/EPSJ/article/view/365
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Humanitarian Military Interventions; Conflict Escalation; Battle-related Deaths; Ordered Probit Regression; peace process; peacekeeping; rebellion ; Ordered Probit Regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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