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Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach

Author

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  • Prince Kumar Maurya
  • Rohit Bansal
  • Anand Kumar Mishra

Abstract

Purpose - This study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check abnormal variation in the CPI, after classifying country-specific monthly data into nine groups. Findings - The outcome revealed that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered inflation globally. However, the severity of inflation in the sample countries is determined by their geographical proximity and trading activity with the countries in conflict. A significant rise in inflation was observed among major European economies during the invasion. As the war continues, the increase in the price of essential commodities is evident worldwide. Originality/value - The war literature till now has concentrated on stock markets, energy markets, exchange rates and precious metals. Since no previous research has attempted to quantify the abnormal effect of the war on domestic and global inflation, the current study will shed much-needed light on the subject.

Suggested Citation

  • Prince Kumar Maurya & Rohit Bansal & Anand Kumar Mishra, 2023. "Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(8), pages 1824-1846, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-01-2023-0003
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-01-2023-0003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Eydam & Florian Leupold, 2026. "Quantifying Macroeconomic Spillovers: The Role of Trade Linkages in Propagating Conflict Shocks," CEPA Discussion Papers 98, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Flavio V Vieira & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2024. "Global inflation before and after the covid-19 pandemic: a panel data approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 889-903.
    3. Skufi, Lorena & Papavangjeli, Meri & Geršl, Adam, 2025. "Migration, remittances, and wage-inflation spillovers: The case of Albania," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
    4. Prince Kumar Maurya & Rohit Bansal & Anand Kumar Mishra, 2025. "Sectoral connectedness, volatility spillover and hedging opportunities: evidence from Indian stock market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1134, December.
    5. Naveed, Muhammad & Ali, Shoaib & Gubareva, Mariya & Omri, Anis, 2024. "When giants fall: Tracing the ripple effects of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse on global financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    6. Pereira, Filipe & Aguiar-Conraria, Luís, 2025. "Eurozone Inflation Convergence: Deceptive Appearances," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 343-352.
    7. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Eurozone inflation: fresh projections from global factors," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 39-47.
    8. Kalpana Regmi & Jiajun Qiao & Lochan Kumar Batala, 2026. "The role of agricultural innovations, renewable energy and economic growth in the CO2 emissions of Nepal: an empirical evidence from the environmental Kuznets curve," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 163-186, January.
    9. Assad Ullah & Xinshun Zhao & Chenghui Ye & Muhammad Abdul Kamal, 2024. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on China’s Stock Market Development: Evidence from Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Spectral Causality Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, September.
    10. Helmut Kraemer-Eis & Joern Block & Antonia Botsari & Frank Lang & Solvej Lorenzen & Walter Diegel, 2024. "Entrepreneurial finance in Europe and the Russian war against Ukraine," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2273-2305, December.
    11. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Saman Hatamerad & Hossain Asgharpur & Bahram Adrangi & Jafar Haghighat, 2024. "Stock price index analysis of four OPEC members: a Bayesian approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    13. Mohammad Haseeb & Md. Emran Hossain & Mohammad Razib Hossain & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Festus Victor Bekun, 2026. "Do the United States'fiscal decentralization, money supply, and environmental policies promote the clean energy transition?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 2267-2300, January.
    14. Dharen Kumar Pandey & S. Ananda & Henchiri Basma & Vineeta Kumari, 2025. "The effect of climate pacts on the stock market performance of listed firms in Turkey," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 27(4), pages 553-582, October.
    15. Salvati, Luigi & Tridico, Pasquale, 2025. "Real wages and productivity: a lesson from Italy, 1980-2023," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 261-272.
    16. Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun & Suhaib Anagreh & Mosab I. Tabash & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2024. "Return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(5), pages 1057-1084, January.
    17. Yizheng Fu & Zhifang Su & Aihua Lin, 2024. "Functional Cointegration Test for Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in China," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 799-820, December.

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