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Structural change in industrial output: China 1995-2010

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  • J.M. Albala-Bertrand

Abstract

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to learn about some patterns of sectoral and industrial structural change of the Chinese economy over the 1995-2010 period, which also complements a previous paper of the author. The chosen period is about (and conveniently) bounded by two international crises: the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and the world crisis that started in 2007/2008. Design/methodology/approach - To such a purpose, this paper set up a quantitative methodology via input-output modelling, which allows us to decompose gross output into some key demand sources or contributions. These are then analyzed over the full period. Findings - It can be shown that the trajectory of the main structural patterns over the period was not smooth and was pretty unbalanced and that they generally responded to both domestic policy and international shocks. Export demand and heavy industry appeared to be the main engines of the economy, which showed massive increases in their share of output, at the expense of domestic demand, services and agriculture. Despite the high growth rates over this period, the Chinese economy seemed to be in need of rebalancing, which seems to have started toward the end of the authors’ period. Originality/value - The decomposition method has been applied before by the author and others, but the variations in this paper are original, just as original is the application to China (never been done before), which in addition is not confined to two or so snapshots separated by many years, as is the usual use, but to the full year-after-year change of the sectoral and industrial structure over this study’s focus period.

Suggested Citation

  • J.M. Albala-Bertrand, 2016. "Structural change in industrial output: China 1995-2010," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 146-170, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jcefts:v:9:y:2016:i:2:p:146-170
    DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2015-0031
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Decomposition; Structure; Evolution; 1995-2010; Input-output; Industrial structural change; L16; O4; B4; E2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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