Analysis of the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the labor market in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)

Purpose - The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement on the labor market within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). Design/methodology/approach - The study is applied to 53 African countries and covers a period of 18 years from 2004 to 2021. To achieve this, we used the gravity model and performed two separate regressions. The first regression aimed to assess the effect of the AfCFTA on trade, while the second sought to analyze the relationship between trade and the unemployment rate within the CEMAC zone. Findings - The results suggest that, despite the real trade potential, the AfCFTA Agreement has not yet had significant effects on trade between CEMAC countries and their African trading partners since its official launch in 2019. The results also show a negative relationship between trade and the unemployment rate in the CEMAC zone. Specifically, an increase of one unit in trade flows is associated with a decrease of 0.002% in the unemployment rate, holding other factors constant. Therefore, an increase in trade, particularly through the removal of tariff barriers among African countries under the AfCFTA Agreement, could potentially reduce unemployment in the CEMAC zone. Originality/value - This study complements the extant literature by assessing the effects of the AfCFTA on the labor market in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC).