Unlocking the efficiency and potential of China’s agricultural exports to RCEP member countries: perspectives on the entire agricultural industry chain

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the trade efficiency and potential of China’s agricultural product exports to Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) member countries across the entire industry chain while analyzing trends and influencing factors.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Chinese customs database, export trade data for China’s agricultural products were collected and segmented by the industry chain. A stochastic frontier gravity model was developed to estimate the export trade efficiency and potential of each segment while exploring the influencing factors.FindingsThe empirical findings indicate that the export efficiency of China’s agricultural products to RCEP member countries across the entire industry chain significantly improved in 2022. The trade performance of China’s exports to other member countries exhibits varying trends across each segment of the industry chain, influenced by both natural and human factors. In 2023, the most efficient exports were upstream to Malaysia, midstream to Brunei and downstream to Malaysia. Japan, Indonesia and Singapore present the greatest potential for China’s agricultural exports across the entire industry chain.Originality/valueThis paper transcends the commonly used six-digit harmonized system (HS) coding in previous studies by employing the eight-digit HS coding from China customs to more accurately identify upstream, midstream and downstream agricultural products, offering insights and strategies to boost export efficiency. Key policy recommendations include promoting RCEP’s upgrade and expansion, strengthening strategic cooperation with member countries and implementing tailored strategies to enhance agricultural trade and industry collaboration.