IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Shocks and Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuation: A SVEC Model based proposal for Argentina’s Economy


  • Luis N. Lanteri

    () (Economista senior, Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA). Buenos Aires, Argentina.)


One of the issues of macroeconomic analysis in recent years has been trying to empirically identify the factors causing fluctuations in economic aggregates. This work investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations using a structural VEC approach and quarterly data for Argentina’s economy, covering the period 1980:1-2009:1. To this effect, the paper imposes short and long run restrictions to the SVEC model, and identifies four structural shocks: term of trade, aggregate supply, aggregate demand and nominal prices. The results show that terms of trade shocks have a positive effect on real GDP, and that the main sources of output fluctuations are aggregate supply shocks. Further, external price shocks and aggregate demand shocks would be, in principle, the most important ones to explain real exchange rate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis N. Lanteri, 2011. "External Shocks and Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuation: A SVEC Model based proposal for Argentina’s Economy," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 113-144, January-J.
  • Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:113-144

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
    2. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1993. "Central bank independence in twelve industrial countries," Other publications TiSEM 0401b17a-e2c7-4179-ace9-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, July.
    4. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March.
    5. Jakob De Haan & Clemens L.J. Siermann, 1996. "Central bank independence, inflation and political instability in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 135-147.
    6. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 335-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Al-Marhubi, Fahim & Willett, Thomas D, 1995. "The Anti Inflationary Influence of Corporatist Structures and Central Bank Independence: The Importance of the Hump Shaped Hypothesis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 84(1-2), pages 153-162, July.
    8. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-399, August.
    9. Andersen, Torben M. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1986. "Coordination of fiscal and monetary policy under different institutional arrangements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-191.
    10. Eijffinger, S. & De Hann, J., 1995. "The Political Economy of Central Bank Independence," Papers 9587, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    11. Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W, 2001. " Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 3-40, February.
    12. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
    13. Haan, Jakob de & Kooi, Willem J., 2000. "Does central bank independence really matter?: New evidence for developing countries using a new indicator," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 643-664, April.
    14. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & de Haan, J., 1996. "Central Bank independence - Only part of the inflation story : A comment," Other publications TiSEM 8afcab3c-9541-44ef-ab3e-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    domestic and external shocks; macroeconomic fluctuations; SVEC models.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:113-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Tiscareño). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.