Avances y desafíos con la universalización de los programas sociales en México: una evaluación de impacto mediante el método de control sintético

For decades, Mexico’s social policy relied on a targeted model that funneled resources towards specific sectors of the population. Since 2019, the federal government restructured social assistance to pursue universal access through direct unconditional cash transfers. This paradigm shift poses unique challenges for the evaluation of policy outcomes, as universalization makes it difficult to apply traditional experimental designs based on treatment and control groups. This article provides a first empirical assessment using the synthetic control method. The results indicate that the universalization of social programs has not had a statistically significant impact on the historical trend on poverty, extreme poverty, or average consumption. The short post-intervention period and questions of comparability across units of analysis are the main limitations of the study.