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Panorama macroeconómico cubano en el primer cuarto del siglo XXI: un análisis desde la perspectiva cuantitativa

Author

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  • Imbernó Díaz, Ana Laura

    (Universidad de La Habana)

  • Hidalgo de los Santos, Vilma

    (Universidad de La Habana)

Abstract

The Cuban macroeconomic environment during the last three decades has been characterized by a high vulnerability to external shocks, weak structural performance, rampant inflation with historical figures in recent years, the conflict between growth and balance of payments that leads to external liquidity tensions, the explosion of fiscal deficit, and volatility of the exchange rate. All these have led to an extremely complex current context that offers little room for maneuvering to implement a macroeconomic stabilization agenda. This article diagnoses the current macroeconomic horizon, by emphasizing the fiscal dilemma as a core factor of the stabilization program, and provides, through econometric modeling, the analysis of the behavior and persistence of the main macroeconomic aggregates, as well as the projection of scenarios that clarify the complex dilemma faced by economic policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Imbernó Díaz, Ana Laura & Hidalgo de los Santos, Vilma, 2025. "Panorama macroeconómico cubano en el primer cuarto del siglo XXI: un análisis desde la perspectiva cuantitativa," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 92(367), pages 609-642, July-Sept.
    • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:92:y:2025:i:367:p:609-642
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v92i367.2619
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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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