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Pensión universal proporcional. Una propuesta para México

Listed author(s):
  • Villagómez. F. Alejandro

    (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas)

  • Ramírez, Darío Gabriel

    (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas)

Contributory pension system coverage has been historically low. High mobility between formal and informal sector results in low contribution density which does not guarantee a minimum pension. The state has created cash transfer programs, which can disincentive formality. This paper proposes a proportional pension for formal employees, which replaces the fixed cash transfer, following the experience of Chile (2008). We follow the Valdés-Prieto approach (2008), which minimizes labor-market distortions. Under the assumption of linear income trajectory, we show that the total value of pensions can increase in 45.6% on average, and fiscal savings in 14.8% when compared to a non-contributory pension programas “65 y más”.// La cobertura de pensiones contributivas en México es baja, y la alta movilidad entre el mercado laboral formal e informal conduce a bajas densidades de cotización que no garantizan acceder a una pensión mínima. El Estado ha creado programas de transferencias, pero cuyo diseño puede desincentivar la formalidad. Este trabajo propone una pensión proporcional y condicionada a la participación en empleos formales reemplazando las transferencias de monto fijo de estos programas, siguiendo la experiencia reciente en Chile. Utilizamos el diseño propuesto por Valdés-Prieto (2008), el cual minimiza las distorsiones en el mercado laboral. Bajo el supuesto de trayectoria lineal de ingresos, nuestra estimación arroja incrementos promedio en el valor total de las pensiones de 45.6% y un ahorro fiscal de 14.8% con respecto a otorgar la transferencia no contributiva como el programa “65 y más”.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXXI (4) (2014)
Issue (Month): 324 (octubre-diciembre)
Pages: .839-874

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:81:y:2014:i:324:p:839-874
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