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Transferencias locales y alternancia partidista

Author

Listed:
  • Fonseca, Felipe de Jesús

    (Universidad de Guadalajara)

  • Gatica, Leonardo A.

    (Universidad de Guadalajara)

  • Chávez, Juan Carlos

    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

We analyze empirically the effect of local transfers (public and private ones) on the probability of partisan alternant under two approaches: first alternant and consecutive alternant between two local administrations, this in the context of political clientelism theory and public-good provision theory with electoral purposes on developing countries. With information from the 124 municipalities in the Mexican state of Jalisco we employ microeconometric techniques: duration models and discrete variable panel data models. Results obtained in the proportional hazard estimation show that private transfers were effective in order to avoid the first alternant. On the other hand, panel data estimations show that public transfers are more successful in order to deter exit in local power on the consecutive administration context.// Estudiamos empíricamente el efecto que tienen las transferencias locales (públicas y privadas) en la probabilidad de alternancia partidista en el marco de la teoría del clientelismo político y de las teorías de la provisión de bienes públicos con fines electorales en países en desarrollo. Lo anterior según dos perspectivas: la primera alternancia y la alternancia entre gobiernos consecutivos. Para ello empleamos un modelo de duración y otro de panel con variable dependiente discreta. Utilizando datos referentes a los 124 municipios que conforman el estado mexicano de Jalisco, los principales resultados del modelo de riesgos proporcionales indican que las transferencias privadas resultaron efectivas para evitar la primera alternancia, mientras que las estimaciones en panel muestran que las transferencias públicas son más exitosas en aras de mantener el poder en los municipios analizados entre gobiernos consecutivos.

Suggested Citation

  • Fonseca, Felipe de Jesús & Gatica, Leonardo A. & Chávez, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Transferencias locales y alternancia partidista," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(313), pages 157-194, enero-mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:79:y:2012:i:313:p:157-194
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v79i313.58
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transferencias locales; clientelismo político; alternancia partidista; estado de Jalisco;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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