IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

¿Por qué las reformas económicas de México no han generado crecimiento?


  • Kehoe, Timothy J.

    (Universidad de Minnesota, Banco de la Reserva Federal de Minneapolis y NBER)

  • Ruhl, Kim J.

    (Universidad de Nueva York)


Following its opening to trade and foreign investment in the mid-1980s, Mexico’s economic growth has been modest at best, particularly in comparison with that of China. Comparing these countries and reviewing the literature, we conclude that the relation between openness and growth is not a simple one. Using standard trade theory, we find that Mexico has gained from trade, and by some measures, more so than China. We sketch out a theory in which developing countries can grow faster than the United States by reforming. As a country becomes richer, this sort of catch-up becomes more difficult. Absent continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s real GDP per working-age person.// Después de su apertura al comercio internacional y la inversión extranjera a mediados del decenio de los ochenta, el crecimiento económico de México ha sido, a lo sumo, modesto, particularmente en comparación al de China. Al comparar estos países y revisar la bibliografía, concluimos que la relación entre la apertura y el crecimiento no es en absoluto sencilla. Por medio de la teoría estándar del comercio encontramos que México se ha beneficiado del intercambio comercial y, según algunos indicadores, incluso más que China. Esbozamos una teoría en la que los países en desarrollo pueden crecer más rápidamente que los Estados Unidos mediante la aplicación de reformas. A medida que un país aumenta su riqueza, este crecimiento compensatorio se torna más difícil. En ausencia de reformas frecuentes, es probable que el crecimiento de China disminuya acusadamente, quizá hasta el punto en que su PIB real por persona en edad laboral caiga a niveles inferiores a los de México.

Suggested Citation

  • Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2011. "¿Por qué las reformas económicas de México no han generado crecimiento?," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(311), pages 491-523, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:78:y:2011:i:311:p:491-523 DOI:

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Moerland, Pieter W., 1995. "Alternative disciplinary mechanisms in different corporate systems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-34, January.
    2. Castañeda, Gonzalo, 2009. ""Sociomática": El estudio de los sistemas adaptables complejos en el entorno socioeconómico," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(301), pages 5-64, enero-mar.
    3. Maurer, Noel & Haber, Stephen, 2007. "Related Lending and Economic Performance: Evidence from Mexico," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(03), pages 551-581, September.
    4. Khanna, Tarun, 2000. "Business groups and social welfare in emerging markets: Existing evidence and unanswered questions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 748-761, May.
    5. Granovetter, Mark, 1995. "Coase Revisited: Business Groups in the Modern Economy," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 93-130.
    6. Sergei Guriev & Andrei Rachinsky, 2005. "The Role of Oligarchs in Russian Capitalism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 131-150, Winter.
    7. Lins, Karl V., 2003. "Equity Ownership and Firm Value in Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(01), pages 159-184, March.
    8. Andrei Shumilov & Natalya Volchkova, 2004. "Russian business groups: substitutes for missing institutions?," Working Papers w0050, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    9. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1978. "Industrial Organization and Entrepreneurship in the Developing Countries: The Economic Groups," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 661-675, July.
    10. Hoshi, Takeo, 2002. "Japanese Corporate Governance," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(4), pages 289-304, January.
    11. Heitor V. Almeida & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2006. "A Theory of Pyramidal Ownership and Family Business Groups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2637-2680, December.
    12. Cynthia A. Montgomery, 1994. "Corporate Diversificaton," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 163-178, Summer.
    13. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    reformas; crecimiento económico; México; China;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:78:y:2011:i:311:p:491-523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rosa María González Mejía). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.