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Dinámica macroeconómica con metas de inflación y déficit fiscal

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  • Mendoza Bellido, Waldo

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

In this model, monetary policy follows an inflation targeting scheme, using the interbank interest rate as the instrument of policy, while the money supply remains endogenous. On the other hand, a limit for the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is set as the rule for fiscal policy, public expenditure remaining endogenous. In the monetary policy rule, the smoothing interest rate derives from the optimizing behavior of the central bank. This model shows the macroeconomic dynamics that appears in two opposite scenarios, that of total credibility in the inflation target of the central bank, and that of no credibility whatsoever, and it is found that i) there can be convergence towards the stationary equilibrium, even when the Taylor Rule is not followed, and ii) if there is total credibility in the central bank, a contractionary monetary policy can lead to inflation undershooting.// En este modelo la política monetaria se basa en un sistema de metas explícitas de inflación, con la tasa de interés interbancaria como instrumento de política y la cantidad de dinero endógena; mientras que la política fiscal opera con un límite en el déficit fiscal como porcentaje del PIB, y el gasto público es endógeno. En la regla de política monetaria, el parámetro de suavizamiento de la tasa de interés se infiere del comportamiento optimador del banco central. El modelo muestra la dinámica macroeconómica que se produce en dos panoramas extremos, de credibilidad completa en la meta de inflación del banco central, y de credibilidad nula, y se encuentra que i) puede haber convergencia hacia el equilibrio estacionario, incluso si no se cumple el principio de Taylor, y ii) si hay completa credibilidad en el banco central, una política monetaria contractiva puede producir un reajuste insuficiente (undershooting) de la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendoza Bellido, Waldo, 2011. "Dinámica macroeconómica con metas de inflación y déficit fiscal," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(310), pages 469-486, abril-jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:78:y:2011:i:310:p:469-486
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v78i310.40
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    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/40/42
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    Keywords

    política monetaria; política fiscal; principio de Taylor;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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