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Después del Colapso

Listed author(s):
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.

    (University of Maryland)

  • Reinhart, Vincent R.

    (American Enterprise Institute)

This paper examines the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. The episodes include the 1929 stock market crash, the 1973 oil shock, the 2007 U.S. subprime collapse and fifteen severe post-World War II financial crises. The focus is not on the immediate antecedents and aftermath of these events but on longer horizons that compare decades rather than years. While evidence of lost decades, as in the depression of the 1930s, 1980s Latin America and 1990s Japan are not ubiquitous, GDP growth and housing prices are significantly lower and unemployment higher in the ten-year window following the crisis when compared to the decade that preceded it. Inflation is lower after 1929 and in the post-financial crisis decade episodes but notoriously higher after the oil shock. We present evidence that the decade of relative prosperity prior to the fall was importantly fueled by an expansion in credit and rising leverage that spans about 10 years; it is followed by a lengthy period of retrenchment that most often only begins after the crisis and lasts almost as long as the credit surge.// El presente artículo examina el comportamiento del PIB real (montos y tasas de crecimiento), el desempleo, la inflación, el crédito bancario y los precios de los bienes raíces a lo largo de un periodo de 21 años en torno de una serie de importantes sucesos y choques adversos, tanto globales como específicos por país. Entre estos episodios se encuentran la caída del mercado accionario de 1929, la crisis petrolera de 1973, el colapso de los créditos subprime de 2007 en los Estados Unidos y 15 crisis financieras severas posteriores a la segunda Guerra Mundial. Se hace hincapié no en los antecedentes inmediatos y las repercusiones de estos sucesos, sino en horizontes más amplios que comparan decenios y no años. Si bien la evidencia de décadas perdidas, como es el caso de la depresión del decenio de los treinta, el decenio de los ochenta en la América Latina y de los noventa en Japón no es omnipresente, el crecimiento del PIB y los precios de la vivienda son significativamente más bajos y el desempleo es mayor en el periodo de 10 años posteriores a la crisis cuando se comparan estos datos con los del decenio precedente. La inflación es menor después de 1929 y en los episodios posteriores a las crisis financieras, pero claramente mayor después de la crisis petrolera. Presentamos pruebas de que el decenio de relativa prosperidad que antecedió al colapso estuvo importantemente impulsado por un periodo de expansión del crédito y apalancamiento creciente que se extiende a lo largo de 10 años. Después del colapso se presenta un largo periodo de recortes económicos que en la mayoría de los casos no comienza sino hasta pasada la crisis y se prolonga casi tanto como el aumento repentino del crédito.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Econónomico.

Volume (Year): LXXVIII (1) (2011)
Issue (Month): 309 (enero-marzo)
Pages: 5-45

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:78:y:2011:i:309:p:5-45
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