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Indicadores de desempeño, presión y vulnerabilidad de las finanzas públicas estatales en México

  • Mendoza Velázquez, Alfonso

    (Centro de Investigación e Inteligencia Económica (CIIE) y Departamento de Economía de la Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla (UPAEP))

The vulnerability and financial pressure of financial systems is a critical subject in light of the economic crisis we are currently facing. This paper defines financial pressure of local governments as the extreme situation characterized by financial imbalances, increasing current expenditure, lack of investment, excessive public debt and debt service. Using multivariate methods this paper develops six indexes that jointly measure the pressure on local public finances in Mexico for the period 2001-2007. These indexes —which by construction are not correlated with each other— capture more than 80% of the variation of public finance variables and show the ranking of each state in relation to other states in Mexico. Among the results we find a trade-off between public investment and balance surpluses and between savings and current expenditure. The hence-obtained set of indexes can be used by local officials to assess the relative condition of his state public finances in relation to others and by supervisors or regulatory bodies to asses the financial pressure experienced by state governments in Mexico.// La vulnerabilidad y presión de los sistemas financieros es un tema latente en la práctica y estudio de la economía a la luz de la crisis reciente. Este artículo define la presión financiera de los gobiernos estatales como aquella ejercida por el desequilibrio financiero, el incremento del gasto corriente, la falta de inversión, la acumulación excesiva de deuda pública y su servicio. A partir de un análisis multivariado en este artículo se desarrolla seis índices que miden en su conjunto la presión en las finanzas públicas estatales en México de 2001 a 2007. Estos índices, no correlacionados entre sí, captan más de 80% de la variabilidad estadística observada en las finanzas públicas estatales en México y muestran la posición relativa de cada entidad federativa contra el resto de los estados. Entre otros resultados se encuentran factores de finanzas públicas que confirman la existencia de una correspondencia (trade-off) entre inversión pública y superávit y entre el ahorro y el gasto ordinario. El conjunto de indicadores obtenido en este artículo puede ser usado por el funcionario local para comparar la posición relativa de su entidad respecto a otros estados y por el regulador/supervisor para determinar la presión financiera que experimentan los gobiernos subsoberanos en México.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXVII (3) (2010)
Issue (Month): 307 (julio-septiembre)
Pages: 605-649

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:77:y:2010:i:307:p:605-649
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/

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