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Los movimientos en el tipo de cambio y el comercio de leche en polvo entre México y los Estados Unidos. Un análisis de cointegración

Listed author(s):
  • Jaramillo Villanueva, José Luis

    (Colegio de Postgraduados en Ciencias Agrícolas, Cholula)

  • Sarker, Rakhal

    (Department of Agricultural Economics and Business, University of Guelph)

Registered author(s):

    Many analysts argue that the substantial growth in agri-food trade between Mexico and the United States can be attributed to changes in exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and NAFTA. This paper quantifies the effects of the changes in Mexico-United States real exchange rate, its volatility and NAFTA on Mexico-United States flows of milk powder and contributes, with empirical evidence, to the debate on the effects of real exchange rate changes and its volatility on agri-food trade flows. Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) approach are used in estimating an import demand function for milk powder in Mexico. To guide the empirical analysis, an expected utility maximization model is developed in this study and a set of reduced form equations are estimated. The results show that while changes in real exchange rate have a positive effect on milk powder imports in Mexico from the United States, volatility of the real exchange rate has a negative effect on imports, both in the short-run and in the long-run. The NAFTA has no significant effect on milk powder imports in Mexico from the United States// Muchos analistas argumentan que el gran crecimiento del comercio de productos agroalimentarios entre México y los Estados Unidos puede atribuirse a los cambios en el tipo de cambio, la volatilidad del tipo de cambio y el Tratado de Libre Comercio (TLCAN). Este artículo cuantifica los efectos de los cambios en el tipo de cambio real entre México y los Estados Unidos, su volatilidad y el TLCAN en los flujos de leche en polvo entre ambos países y contribuye, con evidencia empírica, al debate de los efectos de los cambios en el tipo de cambio real y su volatilidad en los flujos del comercio de productos agroalimentarios. Para estimar una función de demanda de importaciones de la leche en polvo en México, se emplean el análisis de cointegración por máxima probabilidad y un vector de corrección de errores (VCE). Para guiar el análisis empírico, en este estudio se establece un modelo de maximización de la utilidad esperada y se estimó un conjunto de ecuaciones de forma reducida. Los resultados muestran que mientras los cambios en el tipo de cambio real tienen un efecto positivo en las importaciones de leche en polvo en México provenientes de los Estados Unidos, la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real tiene un efecto negativo en las importaciones, tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. El TLCAN no tiene un efecto significativo en las importaciones de leche en polvo que México hace de los Estados Unidos.

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    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXXVII (1) (2010)
    Issue (Month): 305 (enero-marzo)
    Pages: 219-246

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    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:77:y:2010:i:305:p:219-246
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