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Amenazas a la independencia del banco central y su efecto en la inflación


  • Vargas H., Hernando

    (Banco de la República, Colombia)

  • Betancourt G., Rocío

    (Banco de la República, Colombia)


The lack of political support for low inflation and the existence of serious threats of Central Bank Independence (CBI) removal may induce a gradual approach to disinflation by an independent and committed Central Bank (CB). A simple two-period model is used to link two facts observed in Colombia: the gradual disinflation process and the repeated threats to CBI coming from policymakers (Congress and the Government). The model is based on the assumption that, by itself, the CB is independent and directly able to commit to announced inflation targets. Nevertheless, policymakers want the discretionary solution and try to remove the independent and committed CB if the target differs from it. These external threats to the CBI hamper its ability to commit and result in a gradual path of disinflation that lies above the levels of inflation chosen by a committed CB in the absence of threats to its independence.// La falta de apoyo político para reducir la inflación y la existencia de graves amenazas a la independencia del banco central pueden inducir a una desinflación gradual por parte de un banco central comprometido. Dos hechos observados en Colombia, un proceso de desinflación gradual y las repetidas amenazas a la independencia del banco central por parte del gobierno y del Congreso, serán analizados a partir de un modelo teórico de dos períodos. El modelo está basado en el supuesto que el banco central es independiente y se compromete con la meta de inflación anunciada, a la vez que las autoridades buscan una solución discrecional e intentan eliminar la independencia del banco si la meta difiere de dicha solución. Estas amenazas afectan la capacidad del banco para comprometerse y dan por resultado un proceso de desinflación gradual con tasas de inflación más altas que las obtenidas en ausencia de dichas amenazas.

Suggested Citation

  • Vargas H., Hernando & Betancourt G., Rocío, 2010. "Amenazas a la independencia del banco central y su efecto en la inflación," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(305), pages 105-128, enero-mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:77:y:2010:i:305:p:105-128

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    More about this item


    central bank independence; threats to CBI; inflation targeting; independencia del banco central; amenazas a la IBC; metas de inflación;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy


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