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Método de la cadena de Markov-remuestreo-punto de rompimiento estructural del crecimiento económico


  • Adrián Hernández-del-Valle

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)


We propose a structural breakpoint resampling method that allows us to draw reliable conclusion from Markov chain analysis of GDP growth series, and apply it to Mexico and the U.S. According to our findings, the “structural” probability of a real GDP contraction in the U.S. in 2008 is only 3% in spite of the Sub-prime mortgage crisis; and Mexico is in a middle-income trap.// Proponemos un método para la estimación de probabilidades “estructurales” de crecimiento y contracción económica, y lo aplicamos a México y los Estados Unidos. El método emplea cadenas de Markov con base en simulación y análisis de rompimientos estructurales. Según nuestro análisis, la probabilidad estructural de contracción real de la economía estadounidense en 2008 es de sólo 3%, aun en medio de toda la crisis hipotecaria. Por su parte, México se encuentra en una trampa de ingreso medio.

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  • Adrián Hernández-del-Valle, 2009. "Método de la cadena de Markov-remuestreo-punto de rompimiento estructural del crecimiento económico," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(303), pages 619-643, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:76:y:2009:i:303:p:619-643 DOI:

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    More about this item


    simulación; remuestreo; crecimiento económico y contracción; cadenas de Markov; probabilidades estacionarias; probabilidades estructurales;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean


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