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Los efectos de la seguridad social. La experiencia de diecisiete países

  • Evans, Paul

    (Ohio State University)

This paper estimates an Euler equation for per capita consumption to investigate whether social security increases consumption ceteris paribus in seventeen countries. Following the seminal work of Martin Feldstein, the literature has estimated consumption functions to address this question. Unfortunately, consumption functions confound structural and expectational parameters, making their interpretation problematical. Furthermore, if their variables are difference-stationary, least squares may produce inconsistent parameter estimates and must virtually always produce inconsistent standard errors for the estimated parameters. By contrast, under reasonable assumptions, generalized method of moments consistently estimates the parameters and standard errors of Euler equations. Moreover, the parameters are more readily interpretable. The paper finds strong evidence that social security increases consumption ceteris paribus. Furthermore, the coefficient estimates imply large negative effects either on the growth rates of the capital stock, output and consumption along their balanced growth rates or alternatively on their levels.// Este artículo examina una ecuación de Euler para el consumo per capita a fin de investigar si la seguridad social aumenta el consumo ceteris paribus en 17 países. Con base en el trabajo seminal de Feldstein, la bibliografía ha estimado funciones de consumo para resolver este interrogante. Desafortunadamente, las funciones de consumo confunden los parámetros estructurales y los de expectativas, lo que torna problemática su interpretación. Además, si sus variables son estacionarias en las diferencias, el método de mínimos cuadrados podría producir estimaciones paramétricas incongruentes y en la virtual totalidad de los casos debe producir errores estándares incongruentes para los parámetros estimados. En cambio, con supuestos razonables, el método generalizado de los momentos estima congruentemente los parámetros y los errores estándares de las ecuaciones de Euler. Además, los parámetros son interpretables con más facilidad. El ensayo encuentra sólidas pruebas de que la seguridad social aumenta el consumo ceteris paribus. Además, las estimaciones de coeficientes implican grandes efectos negativos en las tasas de crecimiento del acervo de capital, la producción y el consumo a lo largo de sus tasas de crecimiento equilibrado, o bien en sus niveles.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXIII (4) (2006)
Issue (Month): 292 (octubre-diciembre)
Pages: 697-715

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:73:y:2006:i:292:p:697-715
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