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Corridas bancarias sunspot y de tipo fundamental

Author

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  • Fontenla, Matias

    (University of New Mexico)

Abstract

This paper builds a banking environment where both fundamental runs (that stress macroeconomic variables, such as negative technology shocks, as the cause of bank runs) and sunspot runs (where self-fulfilling expectations generate equilibria where agents panic and run on banks) coexist. A policy of narrow banking will prevent runs, but holding excessively high levels of liquidity will prevent socially productive investment opportunities, and thus will not be optimal. In addition, banks lose their role as intermediaries under this policy. A policy of suspension of convertibility may reduce welfare relative to the case where bank runs are allowed to take place, if the probability of sunspot runs is sufficiently low.// Este artículo desarrolla un modelo de bancos en el que la crisis de tipo fundamental (que destaca las variables macroeconómicas como las causantes de crisis bancarias) y la crisis de tipo sunspot (en la cual las expectativas autogeneradas crean equilibrios cuando los agentes entran en pánico y causan una corrida bancaria) coexisten. Una política de 100% de reservas previene ambos tipos de crisis, pero mantener reservas excesivas de liquidez impide inversiones socialmente productivas, y por ende no es óptima. Por otra parte, los bancos pierden su razón de ser con esta política. Una política de suspensión de convertibilidad puede reducir el bienestar social relativo al caso en el que las crisis bancarias son permitidas, si la probabilidad de corridas sunspot es suficientemente baja.

Suggested Citation

  • Fontenla, Matias, 2006. "Corridas bancarias sunspot y de tipo fundamental," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(289), pages 67-86, enero-mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:73:y:2006:i:289:p:67-86
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v73i289.554
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    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/554/730
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis bancarias; sunspot; elementos fundamentales; banca estrecha; suspensión de convertibilidad;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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