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Reforma de pensiones y determinantes de la afiliación al seguro social de largo plazo en Bolivia

Listed author(s):
  • Evia Vizcarra, José Luis

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Fernández Moscoso, Miguel

    (Depatamento de Economía e IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Registered author(s):

    By 1996 the “pay as you go” pension system in Bolivia had gone bankruptcy. An important Pension Reform was enforced the same year. This paper analyses some important characteristics of old pension system, which led the system to bankruptcy, and some relevant incentives included in new system, aimed at raising covertures of the long run security. Risk factors of new system are also discussed, specially fiscal insolvency. Long run social security in Bolivia has protected a very low proportion of the active labour force, both before and after pensions reform. However the new system has increased modestly the percentage of protected workers. In order to identify the determinants of probability of being insured a probit model was estimated. After pension’s reform some variables as average of worked hours per day, years of work at the same working-place, and sex have been eliminated as predictors of the mentioned probability.// En 1996 el sistema de reparto estaba quebrado. La reforma de pensiones de ese año cambió el sistema de manera importante. En el presente trabajo se analiza las razones por las cuales el antiguo sistema estaba en quiebra a mediados de los años noventa; así como las características del nuevo sistema de pensiones, los incentivos que incluye para aumentar la cobertura del Sistema de Seguridad Social Obligatorio (SSO) y los riesgos a los que está expuesto, con particular hincapié en el de insolvencia fiscal. La cobertura del seguro social obligatorio de largo plazo ha sido reducida y si bien el nuevo sistema aumenta dicha cobertura, ésta ha permanecido en un porcentaje muy bajo de ocupados. Se estima una función probit para identificar los determinantes de la probabilidad de estar asegurado antes y después de la reforma, en la que se encontró que algunas variables como las horas trabajadas por día, la antigüedad en el empleo y el género de la persona dejan de ser relevantes para determinar la probabilidad de estar asegurado después de la introducción de la reforma.

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    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXXII (3) (2005)
    Issue (Month): 287 (julio-septiembre)
    Pages: 655-677

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    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:72:y:2005:i:287:p:655-677
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