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Los determinantes personales y regionales del desempleo en el mercado laboral mexicano. Un modelo logístico, 1995 y 2000

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  • Garro Bordonaro, Nora

    (UAM-I)

  • Rodríguez Oreggia, Eduardo

    (Conferencia Interamericana de Seguridad Social y London School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we aim to analyze the personal and regional determinants of unemployment by gender in Mexico, using two periods: one of economic crisis- the third quarter of 1995-, and one of economic stability- the third quarter of 2000. We calculated a logistic model and applied a structural change test for the coefficients. We used two employment definitions by INEGI and different proposed definition with the Urban Employment National Survey. The results show a significant structural change in factors affecting unemployment and that there are considerable variations according to the definition under analysis.// El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar los determinantes personales y regionales del desempleo en México, tanto para los hombres como para las mujeres, en un periodo de crisis económica – tercer trimestre de 1995- y en un periodo de recuperación económica – tercer trimestre de 2000. Se utilizó un modelo logístico y una prueba de cambio estructural de los estimadores. Asimismo, se utilizaron dos definiciones de desempleo del INEGI y una propuesta diferente con microdatos de la Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano. Los resultados sugieren que hay un cambio estructural en los determinantes del desempleo entre los dos periodos y variaciones considerables entre los determinantes según las diversas definiciones empleadas.

Suggested Citation

  • Garro Bordonaro, Nora & Rodríguez Oreggia, Eduardo, 2002. "Los determinantes personales y regionales del desempleo en el mercado laboral mexicano. Un modelo logístico, 1995 y 2000," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(276), pages 543-566, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:69:y:2002:i:276:p:543-566
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