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La inflación moderada y la inestabilidad del proceso inflacionario

Listed author(s):
  • Werner, Alejandro M.

    (Dirección General de Investigación Económica, Banco de México)

  • Bazdresch, Santiago

    (Dirección General de Investigación Económica, Banco de México)

During a large part of its recent history, the Mexican economy has experienced a moderate level of inflation. In this note some arguments are given against maintaining inflation in this range for long periods, not only in the sense that long run costs are large and inevitable, but because the longer the inflation stays in the moderate rage, the smaller the probability of it decreasing in the near future becomes. A historical study of the inflationary behavior of countries that have moderate inflation is undertake. We show that the probability of staying for a long time in this inflation range is smaller that the probability of staying in the low inflation level, and the probability of observing large jumps in inflation is greatly increased when the moderate inflation range is compared with the low inflation one. Another interesting result from this exercise is that disinflation programs that do not depend on an exchange rate anchor have hand longer lasting results, than those depending on a fixed exchange rate. Lastly, the classic cases of moderate inflation countries are described and analyzed.// La economía mexicana ha experimentado niveles moderados de inflación durante gran parte de su historia reciente. En esta nota se argumenta que no es deseable que un país mantenga estos niveles de inflación por periodos prolongados, no sólo por que sus costos a largo plazo son grandes e inevitables sino por que a medida que se extiende el periodo de inflación moderada la probabilidad de que esta se reduzca en lo futuro desciende considerablemente. En este trabajo se realiza un estudio histórico del comportamiento inflacionario de países que han transitado con inflación moderada por periodos de distinta duración. Se comprueba que la probabilidad de mantenerse en esta situación es mucho menor a la de mantenerse en una inflación baja y que la probabilidad de observar un incremento considerable en la tasa de inflación aumenta de manera importante al pasar de un rango de inflación baja a un rango de inflación moderada. Además se encuentra que los procesos desinflacionarios que no han dependido de un ancla cambiaria han tenido resultados más duraderos que los programas basados en un tipo de cambio fijo. Por último se analizan los casos clásicos de países con inflación moderada.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXVII (4) (2000)
Issue (Month): 268 (octubre-diciembre)
Pages: 487-522

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:67:y:2000:i:268:p:487-522
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