IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

La inflación moderada y la inestabilidad del proceso inflacionario


  • Werner, Alejandro M.

    (Dirección General de Investigación Económica, Banco de México)

  • Bazdresch, Santiago

    (Dirección General de Investigación Económica, Banco de México)


During a large part of its recent history, the Mexican economy has experienced a moderate level of inflation. In this note some arguments are given against maintaining inflation in this range for long periods, not only in the sense that long run costs are large and inevitable, but because the longer the inflation stays in the moderate rage, the smaller the probability of it decreasing in the near future becomes. A historical study of the inflationary behavior of countries that have moderate inflation is undertake. We show that the probability of staying for a long time in this inflation range is smaller that the probability of staying in the low inflation level, and the probability of observing large jumps in inflation is greatly increased when the moderate inflation range is compared with the low inflation one. Another interesting result from this exercise is that disinflation programs that do not depend on an exchange rate anchor have hand longer lasting results, than those depending on a fixed exchange rate. Lastly, the classic cases of moderate inflation countries are described and analyzed.// La economía mexicana ha experimentado niveles moderados de inflación durante gran parte de su historia reciente. En esta nota se argumenta que no es deseable que un país mantenga estos niveles de inflación por periodos prolongados, no sólo por que sus costos a largo plazo son grandes e inevitables sino por que a medida que se extiende el periodo de inflación moderada la probabilidad de que esta se reduzca en lo futuro desciende considerablemente. En este trabajo se realiza un estudio histórico del comportamiento inflacionario de países que han transitado con inflación moderada por periodos de distinta duración. Se comprueba que la probabilidad de mantenerse en esta situación es mucho menor a la de mantenerse en una inflación baja y que la probabilidad de observar un incremento considerable en la tasa de inflación aumenta de manera importante al pasar de un rango de inflación baja a un rango de inflación moderada. Además se encuentra que los procesos desinflacionarios que no han dependido de un ancla cambiaria han tenido resultados más duraderos que los programas basados en un tipo de cambio fijo. Por último se analizan los casos clásicos de países con inflación moderada.

Suggested Citation

  • Werner, Alejandro M. & Bazdresch, Santiago, 2000. "La inflación moderada y la inestabilidad del proceso inflacionario," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(268), pages 487-522, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:67:y:2000:i:268:p:487-522

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:67:y:2000:i:268:p:487-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nuria Pliego Vinageras). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.