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Inversión y ajuste macroeconómico: El caso del Este de Asia

Listed author(s):
  • Larraín, Felipe

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • Vergara, Rodrigo

    (Unidad Asesora de Política Económica, Banco Central de Chile)

One of the most impressive features of the succesfull East Asian economies has been their ability to mantain very high rates of investment. Beyon any doubt, this factor has been crucial in determinig their growth performance over the past three decades. This paper attempets to expalin the evolutionn of investment in four East Asian economies: Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. In particular the aim is to identify the determinants of private investment, and to measure its response to different variables. It is found that private investment in these countries is explained well by a handful of variables. on the one, hand an increase in GDP growth, public investment or credit availability exert a positive and significant influence over private investment. On the other hand, higher external debt, real interest rates or real exchange rate variability are a clear desincentive to private investment.// Una de las características más sobresalientes de las economías exitosas del Este de Asia es la alta tasa de inversión que han logrado mantener a lo largo del tiempo. Sin lugar a dudas esto ha sido un determinante fundamental de las elevadas tasas de crecimiento económico presentadas por estos países en las pasadas tres décadas. El propósito de este artículo es explicar la evolución de la inversión en cuatro países del Este de Asia: Corea, Singapur, Tailandia y Malasia. En particular, se pretende identificar los principales determinantes de la inversión privada y medir el grado de respuesta de ésta ante cambios en diversas varaibles. Se concluye que la inversión privada en estos países es explicada por un número reducido de variables. Por una parte, una mayor tasa de crecimiento del PIB, una inversión pública más alta y mayor disponibilidad de crédito producen un efecto positivo en la inversión privada. Por otra parte, un incremento en la deuda externa, en la tasa real de interés o en la volatibilidad del tipo de cambio real afectan negativamente la inversión privada.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LX(2) (1993)
Issue (Month): 238 (abril-junio)
Pages: 293-351

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:60:y:1993:i:238:p:293-351
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