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Thoughts on balance-of-paymentsconstrained growth after 40 years

Author

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  • A.P. Thirlwall

    (University of Kent, Canterbury, UK)

Abstract

This paper considers how Thirlwall's balance-of-payments-constrained growth model has fared over the preceding 40 years. Issues dealt with include how the model fits into Harrod's closed-economy dynamic model; whether the model is a tautology; the role of the exchange rate and terms of trade in influencing the long-run growth rate, and whether capital inflows make any difference to the long-run predictions of the model. The conclusion is that it is mainly the structure of production and trade that determines the long-run growth rate of countries, within a balance-of-payments equilibrium framework, as determinants of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports.

Suggested Citation

  • A.P. Thirlwall, 2019. "Thoughts on balance-of-paymentsconstrained growth after 40 years," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 554-567, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:7:y:2019:i:4:p554-567
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Santini, Theo & de Acypreste, Rafael, 2023. "A vertically integrated approach to increasing returns and cumulative causation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 49-58.
    2. Guilherme Spinato Morlin & Nikolas Passos & Riccardo Pariboni, 2021. "Growth theory and the growth model perspective: Insights from the supermultiplier," Department of Economics University of Siena 869, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    4. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Cícero, Vinicius Curti & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2023. "Functional distribution of income as a determinant of importing behavior: An empirical analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 393-405.
    6. Christopher Cramer & Jonathan Di John & John Sender, 2022. "Classification and Roundabout Production in High‐value Agriculture: A Fresh Approach to Industrialization," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 495-524, May.
    7. F.N. Chimphamba & M.K. Wilson, 2022. "The balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for Malawi: Evidence from the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    8. Vítor Domingues Martinho & Maria Del Carmen Sánchez‐Carreira & Paulo Reis Mourão, 2021. "Transnational economic clusters: The case of the Iberian Peninsula," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 1442-1459, October.
    9. Nell, Kevin, 2023. "Inflation and growth in developing economies: A tribute to Professor Thirlwall," MPRA Paper 118757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2023.
    10. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    11. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer & Andre Novas Otero, 2023. "A tale of housing cycles and fiscal policy, not competitiveness. Growth drivers in Southern Europe," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 483-505, May.
    13. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Teixeira, Joanilio Rodolpho, 2021. "An appraisal of neo-Kaldorian theories from a structural economic dynamics perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 247-255.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    open-economy macroeconomics; balance-of-payments-constrained growth; the Harrod trade multiplier; Thirlwall's law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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