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Modelling accumulation: A theoretical and empirical application of the accelerator principle under uncertainty


  • Philip Arestis

    () (University of Cambridge, UK, and University of the Basque Country, Spain)

  • Ana Rosa González

    (University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain)

  • Óscar Dejuán

    (University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain)


In this paper we derive a theoretical macro accumulation function, which relies on the accelerator principle and is complemented by utilizing capacity and profits. This investigation also accounts for several sources and kinds of uncertainty: exchange rates for financial uncertainty, oil prices for political uncertainty and interest rates for stock market uncertainty. The latter purports to account for the relationship between physical and financial investment. We also take on board the role of conventions in an attempt to account fully for uncertainty. In doing so, we include the relevant variables as deviations from their conventional levels. In the second part of the paper we estimate the investment function, by means of the system GMM in a panel of 12 OECD economies over the period 1970 - 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González & Óscar Dejuán, 2012. "Modelling accumulation: A theoretical and empirical application of the accelerator principle under uncertainty," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 255-276.
  • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p255-276

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2017. "Financialisation and physical investment: a global race to the bottom in accumulation?," Working Papers PKWP1707, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG).
    2. Arestis, Philip & Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana Rosa, 2016. "Revisiting the accelerator principle in a world of uncertainty: Some empirical evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-42.
    3. Tori, Daniele & Onaran, Özlem, 2017. "The effects of financialisation and financial development on investment: evidence from firm-level data in Europe," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 16089, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    4. repec:bla:metroe:v:68:y:2017:i:1:p:194-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tori, Daniele & Onaran, Özlem, 2015. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 14068, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.

    More about this item


    Â Accumulation; accelerator; uncertainty; conventions; Keynesian economics;

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity


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