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Parasal Soklarin Asimetrik Etkileri: Teori ve Turkiye Uygulamasi

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    (Karadeniz Teknik Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Nebiye YAMAK


    (Karadeniz Teknik Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

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    Iktisadi soklarin, reel degiskenler uzerinde daralma ve genisleme yonunde yaratacagi etkiler, farkli hiz, siddet veya oranda gerceklesebilmektedir. Pozitif ve negatif soklarin birbirinden farkli etkiler yaratmasi, ilgili reel degiskende asimetrik hareketlere yol acmaktadir. Reel degiskenlerin asimetrik bir sekilde hareket edip etmedigi sorusu, ilk olarak Keynes (1936) ve Burns ve Mitchell (1946)’in calismalari ile gundeme gelmis, gunumuze kadar teorik ve ampirik calismalarin ilgi odagi olmustur. Konuya olan bu ilgi, teorik ve ampirik tartismalari da berberinde getirdiginden, calismada 1990:I-2010:IV donemi Turkiye ekonomisi icin parasal soklarin reel uretim duzeyi uzerindeki olasi asimetrik etkilerinin sinanmasi amaclanmistir. Bu amacla Barro (1977)’nun kullandigi iki asamali tahmin yonteminden yararlanýlmýþtýr. Birinci asamada parasal denklem tahmin edilmistir. Parasal denklemin hata terimlerinden elde edilen parasal soklarin, pozitif ve negatif olarak ayristirilmasinda, Cover (1992)’in yontemi kullanilmistir. Ikinci asamada, reel GSYH denklemi yardimiyla, parasal soklarin reel uretim duzeyi uzerinde asimetrik bir etkiye sahip olup olmadigi, uc farkli hipotez cercevesinde test edilmistir. Ampirik sonuclar, Turkiye’deki reel uretimin pozitif ve negatif parasal soklardan ayni olcude etkilenmedigini ve dolayisiyla parasal soklarin asimetrik etkilere sahip oldugunu gostermistir.

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    Article provided by Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences in its journal Ege Academic Review.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 339-350

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    Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:12:y:2012:i:3:p:339-350
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