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Procjena Phillipsove krivulje na primjeru Republike Hrvatske: Parcijalni VEC model

Author

Listed:
  • Martina Basarac

    (dipl. oec., znanstveni novak – asistent, Odsjek za ekonomska istraživanja Zavoda za povijesne i društvene znanosti Hrvatske akademije znanosti i umjetnosti, Zagreb)

Abstract

U radu je dan kronološki pregled intelektualnih dosega u koje su utkani temeljni razlozi dugovje nosti Phillipsove krivulje, kao i teorijski i empirijski izazovi koji su tijekom godina promatranja i usavršavanja stavljeni pred glasovitu relaciju. Pobrojane su nesavršenosti i nedostaci iste te otvorena pitanja na koja tek treba odgovoriti. Nadalje, u radu se ispituje postojanje standardne Phillipsove krivulje za slu aj Republike Hrvatske. Krivulja se procjenjuje VAR metodologijom, a dobiveni rezultati se uspore!uju. U cilju ispitivanja dugoro ne povezanosti izme!u klju nih varijabli modela, provedena je analiza koja uklju uje test jedinicnih korijena, vektorsku autoregresiju, analizu kointegriranosti varijabli modela Johansenovom metodom te definiranje parcijalnog modela korekcije pogreške. Postojanje standardne Phillipsove krivulje na primjeru Republike Hrvatske djelomi no se pokazalo to nim. Naime, potvr!eno je da postoji kointegracijska povezanost izme!u nezaposlenosti, realnih pla"a, proizvodnosti i inflacije, iz ega proizlazi zaklju ak da izme!u promatranih varijabli postoji dugoro na ravnoteža, što odražava prirodu tržišta rada u proteklom desetlje"u. Me!utim, zbog slabe egzogenosti pojedinih varijabli modela, njihova kratkorocna dinamika se ne modelira. Dobiveni rezultati provedenog istraživanja u skladu su s do sada provedenim istraživanjima na podru ju Phillipsove krivulje za Republiku Hrvatsku. Model ima dobru objašnjavaju"u mo" i zadovoljavaju"e rezultate dijagnosti kih testova.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Basarac, 2009. "Procjena Phillipsove krivulje na primjeru Republike Hrvatske: Parcijalni VEC model," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 16(1), pages 49-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:49-73
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    Keywords

    Phillipsova krivulja; kointegracija; uvjetni VEC model; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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