Complex Dynamics of Macroeconomic Collapse and Its Aftermath in Transition Economies
The economic transition from planned command socialism to market capitalism has been unpredictable and complicated with a variety of divergent paths and outcomes emerging from the breakup and collapse of the former Soviet-led Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) bloc. Although social, political, and cultural factors played important roles in the actual collapse, an underlying factor was increasing economic stagnation, especially in the USSR. This led to reform efforts that led to actual economic decline, the breakup of the bloc, and systemic collapse [Rosser and Rosser, 199Va]. The unexpected and dramatically sudden nature of this collapse led Sargent  to doubt the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper we seek to partially explicate the varieties of these episodes of discontinuity and turbulence by considering some forms of complex nonlinear dynamics as applied to the stages of the systemic transition process.
Volume (Year): 30 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
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