Analysis by means of a gravitation model of international flows of patent applications in the period 1967-1978

A gravitation model similar to that used for the simulation of international trade flows was constructed for international flows of patent applications and these flows were estimated on a log-linear basis over a period of several years in respect of a number of countries. In modified versions of this model, various potentials which could significantly affect the numbers of 'active' and 'passive' patent applications beyond national frontiers were used in the gravitation model at a national level. GNP-related elasticity of flow of patent applications was shown to be far greater than 1 both in the patent filing countries and in the receiving countries. As anticipated, the distance-related elasticities were lower than in the case of international trade in physical products but nevertheless highly significant. With regard to the basic model, preferences of varying strength for patenting beyond national frontiers were quantified and interepreted. The estimates produced by the model for 1967, 1971 and 1975-1978 permitted analysis of the trend in the correlations studied. As a supplement to the analysis of the total number of patent applications an analysis was made, for the year 1977, of the preferences of the various countries in respect of patent filing in 31 IPC technical units. International flows of patent information play a special role in the field of international technology transfer. It may safely be stated that these flows are as determined on the transfer of technological products. If one wishes to regard the number of patent applications or patents granted as an expression of the output of technological knowledge achieved by individual economies, undertakings, research institutes, etc..., one must assume a more or less direct correlation between numerical distribution and technological and economic value. In the case of non-domestic applications, however, the economic aspect of patenting, from the point of view of cost and potential profit, is more significant. The aims of this study are as follows: to explain the international flows of patent applications in terms of economic and economically relevant variables, to identify the general determinants of patenting activity beyond national frontiers, and to carry out a quantitative analysis of the degree of variation from the overall pattern of patenting activity that can be observed in the various countries and groupings of countries with different economic systems .