From ashes to opportunity? Reimagining job creation in a smoke-free Africa

This study uses data from 54 African countries over the period 1991 to 2020 to examine the impact of tobacco control policies (framework convention on tobacco consumption) on employment in agriculture, employment in industry and employment in services in Africa. Using Propensity score matching and difference-in-difference (DID) techniques alongside with quantile treatment effects and heterogenous treatment effects due to contextual disparities the results show that smoke-free policies have complex effects on employment in Africa. They can lead to job losses in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, which employ a large proportion of workers. However, they can also create jobs in the health services sector, which is needed to treat tobacco-related diseases. The results of this study have important implications for African countries. To minimise the negative effects of smoke-free policies on employment, it is important to implement them in a targeted way. This can be done by targeting policies at the sectors most affected and by providing support programmes for workers who lose their jobs. Implementing these measures will enable African countries to make the most of their smoke-free policies by promoting public health while supporting the economy.