Age structure and democratic development: the nonlinear and conditional role of youth bulges

This study investigates the influence of structural demographic factors on democratic development, focusing on the role of age structure measured by youth bulges. Whereas the existing literature has largely viewed youth bulges as a threat to democracy, this research theorizes the multifaceted impacts of youth bulges and contends that they can be either beneficial or detrimental to democracy, depending on the magnitude of a country’s youthful population and contextual factors. Using an original longitudinal country-year dataset spanning 156 countries between 1975 and 2018 and leveraging within-country variation over time to mitigate endogeneity bias, we find a nonlinear and conditional effect of youth bulges on democratization that is robust to different measures and model specifications. Specifically, the effect follows an inverted-U pattern: youth bulges promote democratization up to an intermediate, sustainable level; beyond this threshold, their impact turns negative when excessively large youthful populations strain the state’s capacity to manage them. Moreover, the democratizing impact of youth bulges is contingent on structural socioeconomic factors, including a robust economy, low unemployment, and high educational and ICT development. Importantly, the effect of youth bulges holds across various regime types. In light of these results, our study also underscores the democratic challenges posed by population aging. Overall, these findings emphasize structural demographic factors as an important explanation for democratic development.