Ostromian institutions and violence: Community forestry and Nepal’s civil war

This paper studies the relationship between local, cooperative institutions for managing common-pool resources (Ostromian institutions) and the likelihood of experiencing violence in civil war. While existing literature suggests that Ostromian institutions may have a mitigating effect on violence through the generation of pro-social norms, we find evidence consistent with the theory that participation in Ostromian institutions makes communities more likely to experience violence. We study this relationship in the context of the Nepal community forestry program and the Maoist conflict from 1996-2006, where we estimate that communities that participated in the program experienced 7.2% more deaths, disappearances, and disabilities compared to non-participating communities. We rely on an instrumental variable (the locations of forest range posts) to reduce the likelihood that omitted variables, selection bias, and reverse-causality drive the results. We suggest that the apparent effect may be attributed to in-group (as opposed to universal) pro-social norm formation, but we also discuss two alternative mechanisms, including local communities as information hubs, and ideological alignments. These findings indicate the need for cautious consideration of conflict and post-conflict interventions that rely on local cooperative institution building, to ensure they do not make violence more likely.