How does ownership structure shape the autonomous ride-hailing market? A dynamic evolutionary perspective

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are widely regarded as a transformative solution for urban ride-hailing markets, boosting efficiency and cutting costs. Yet they intensify competition with human driven ride-hailing services and worsen job insecurity among drivers. To address these challenges, this study investigates the optimal ownership structure for AVs, specifically private ownership versus enterprise ownership, by developing a tripartite evolutionary game model grounded in prospect theory, that incorporates the strategic interactions of ride-hailing platforms, AV retailers, and the government. This model is employed to analyze how critical factors influence the stability and evolutionary trajectories of stakeholders' decision-making, including risk perception, policy intervention, and market dynamics. The study shows that: (1) the government promotes AV market expansion through a zero down payment strategy, but social welfare can only be enhanced when promotional efforts are matched with supervision intensity. When both promotion and supervision are strong, enterprise ownership is the better choice for platforms; however, when promotion is strong but supervision is weak, private ownership yields higher social welfare; (2) platform ownership preferences follow a U-shaped trajectory in response to market expansion, ultimately reverting to private ownership as markets become saturated; (3) government promotion policy shows strong resilience to variations in risk preferences. As the platform's risk preference intensifies, the government shifts from market promotion to enhanced supervision; (4) interestingly, even when driver acceptance of enterprise ownership remains low, a large driver base can still induce the government to sustain active promotion. These findings provide robust theoretical support for optimizing ownership structures and guiding the transition pathways of autonomous ride-hailing within urban transport systems.