Unintended welfare consequences of high-speed rail development: Evidence from rural China’s elderly

This study combines four waves (2014-2020) of the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) with county-level measures of high-speed railway (HSR) network densification to estimate the unintended welfare consequences of HSR development for rural older adults. Using a two-way fixed effects framework and multiple robustness strategies, we find that HSR expansion significantly reduces life satisfaction and increases depressive symptoms among rural elders. Mechanism analyses indicate that improved transport accessibility accelerates the out-migration of adult children and leads to substantial declines in intergenerational financial and instrumental support, while the probability of elders providing downward financial transfers to their adult children increases by 30.1%. These shifts reshape traditional co-residence structures and intensify intergenerational strain, ultimately undermining older adults’ subjective well-being (SWB). Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that negative effects are strongest among only-child families, individuals endorsing traditional filial beliefs, and older women. Meanwhile, regional heterogeneity shows the middle region experiences the largest decline in life satisfaction, and the western region, depressive symptoms, whereas internet engagement partially buffers the welfare losses associated with spatial separation. By documenting the micro-level distributional and intergenerational consequences of large-scale transport infrastructure, this study expands the literature beyond its predominant focus on economic benefits, and provides new evidence on how HSR development can inadvertently weaken informal eldercare systems in rural China. Policy implications suggest that HSR expansion should be synergistically implemented with the improvement of rural eldercare service systems and the advancement of digital inclusion policies, so as to prevent vulnerable older adults and those in underdeveloped regions from bearing disproportionate welfare costs.