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Evaluating advanced air mobility as an alternative to conventional essential air service operations: Market conditions, technology tradeoffs, and sensitivity analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Xinyang
  • Cui, Can
  • Zhang, Yu

Abstract

The U.S. Essential Air Service (EAS) program plays a critical role in maintaining air connectivity for small and remote communities, yet its cost effectiveness has been widely debated. Advances in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) technologies motivate renewed examination of how alternative aircraft concepts could influence subsidy requirements within subsidized essential air service. This study develops a data-driven, uncertainty-aware framework to assess the potential subsidy implications of substituting conventional EAS operations with AAM configurations on short- and medium-haul routes. A subsidy estimation model consistent with existing EAS contracting practices is applied to six conceptual aircraft configurations, including battery-electric and hybrid-electric variants of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL), short take-off and landing (STOL), and conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) aircraft. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to represent uncertainty in key technological and operational parameters, including aircraft acquisition cost, energy consumption, battery performance, and load factors. Scenario analyses are conducted for routes shorter than 150 miles and for routes between 150 and 500 miles to examine how subsidy outcomes vary across distance ranges and demand levels. Across the simulated scenarios, hybrid-electric STOL configurations demonstrate comparatively favorable median subsidy outcomes and lower variability under most modeled conditions, while other configurations exhibit greater sensitivity to demand and cost assumptions. Battery-electric aircraft show potential advantages in selected short-haul markets but remain constrained by range limitations and higher outcome variability. Overall, the results illustrate how uncertainty-aware subsidy modeling can support comparative evaluation and market screening within the EAS framework, contributing to policy discussions on the future role of emerging aircraft technologies in essential air service.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xinyang & Cui, Can & Zhang, Yu, 2026. "Evaluating advanced air mobility as an alternative to conventional essential air service operations: Market conditions, technology tradeoffs, and sensitivity analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:185:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x26002192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104209
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