Selection of sustainable energy for maritime transportation with behavioural decision analysis and cooperative game

The transition to low-carbon energy is critical for decarbonising maritime transport. However, choosing among competing fuel options remains difficult because decisions involve multiple criteria, uncertainty, and behavioural bias. This study proposes an integrated multi-criteria decision framework that combines Prospect Theory, Evidential Reasoning, and a cooperative-game-based weighting scheme to evaluate sustainable marine energy alternatives. Prospect Theory is used to analyses decision-makers’ behaviour to provide a realistic perspective on their preferences and risk attitudes, generating prospect values for each indicator of sustainable alternative energy. The evidential reasoning (ER) approach then transforms these prospect values into belief degrees and establishes belief structures that fuse quantitative data, producing a robust, preference-based ranking of the alternatives. Improved cooperative game model determines the relative weights of evaluation indicators and criteria, ensuring equitable consideration of all factors, and applies these weights within the ER approach to aggregate belief degrees for sustainable energy alternatives. The framework is applied on an 8500 TEU container vessel operating a medium-distance, high-frequency route between Hong Kong and Shanghai. Among four energy alternatives, methanol emerges as the most preferred option, followed by LNG and hydrogen. Beyond ranking, the results indicate that hydrogen adoption requires harmonised safety standards and risk-sharing subsidies to overcome governance and economic barriers. Furthermore, LNG deployment must be coupled with rigorous lifecycle accounting to prevent carbon lock-in, supporting a portfolio approach for green corridor policy design.