Global drivers of transport carbon footprint in a changing economy: Land, air, and maritime perspectives

As globalization deepens, the expansion of the logistics industry has become both a driver of economic growth and a major challenge to global decarbonization efforts. Despite its crucial role in sustaining international trade, logistics remains one of the most carbon-intensive sectors, yet its spatiotemporal emission patterns and driving mechanisms have not been systematically examined at the global scale. Thus, this study integrates a Multi-Regional Input–Output (MRIO) model with Dynamic Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), which enables us to capture both the intersectoral linkages and temporal evolution of key emission drivers. We quantify transport-related carbon emissions across 154 countries from 2005 to 2020. Five key drivers are assessed, including population, per capita economic level, sector scale, production structure, and energy efficiency. Results show a slight global decline in transport-related emissions, but pronounced regional disparities persist, with the U.S., China, and Brazil responsible for over 45% of total emissions. Energy efficiency improvements have been the main mitigating factor, while economic and population growth continue to drive emissions upward. Land transport dominates total emissions, whereas air and maritime transport show slower progress in efficiency gains. Furthermore, indirect emissions from agriculture and construction through global supply chains are increasingly significant, with Asia emerging as a key cross-regional contributor. These findings provide new insights into the structural and regional heterogeneity of logistics-related emissions and underscore the need for targeted, efficiency-oriented, and internationally coordinated decarbonization strategies to promote a low-carbon transition in the logistics sector.