LNG multimodal transport resilience assessment from Russia to mainland China: Resilience measure with an international LNG transport connectivity

LNG is a vital green fuel for replacing traditional fossil fuels in a green economy. This study assesses the resilience of LNG multimodal transport across two main modes: international pipeline and maritime shipping, using a new international LNG transport connectivity (ILTC) index. To do this, we first propose monetary- and time-based international LNG transport connectivity (ILTC) through the two main modes of LNG transport: international pipeline and maritime shipping. Next, we analyze the path-choice behavior of LNG shippers using the nested logit model and provide measures of both monetary- and time-based ILTCs based on monetary and time costs throughout the entire LNG multimodal transport process via pipeline and shipping. Finally, using empirical data on LNG transport from Russia to China's Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, we analyze the resilience of international LNG multimodal transport and identify key factors influencing it. The results suggest that LNG multimodal transport resilience via maritime shipping is generally higher than that via pipeline transportation from Russia to China's YRD region, as measured by monetary-based ILTC. When resilience is measured by time-based ILTC, resilience via international pipeline exceeds that via maritime shipping from Russia to China. However, pipeline transport does not show a significant resilience advantage. The results on the spatial distribution of ILTCs to different destination cities imply that the multimodal transport resilience of these cities via pipeline transportation is mainly determined by international long-haul pipeline transportation, as measured by monetary-based ILTC. Furthermore, the analysis of LNG shippers' preferred transport mode indicated that international pipeline transportation is the primary choice for most LNG importers in the YRD region. Based on these findings, we propose policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of LNG multimodal transport. Our study provides theoretical support for advancing research on transport resilience and connectivity and offers guidance to decision-makers on developing policies that support the sustainable growth of LNG transport.