Stable hierarchy, dynamic composition: Sectoral evolution in Hong Kong shipping hub from an ecosystem perspective

With global shipping becoming increasingly complex, port-centric approaches are no longer sufficient to explain how modern shipping hubs evolve. This study pioneers a quantitative ecosystem-level analysis of shipping hubs, providing strategic insights amid market transformations. Based on intersectoral interdependencies, this study innovatively integrates the ecological Lotka-Volterra model with complex network analysis to capture sectoral impacts, connectivity, and resource transmission capabilities over time, thereby revealing sectoral evolution of shipping hubs. Using Hong Kong (2001–2023) as a case study, this study examines the shifting roles and interactions across eleven core sectors. Findings challenge conventional views: Hong Kong's container terminal serves more as a stabilizing anchor than an active engine, while sea shipping, though vital for revenue and resource flow, has limited sectoral impact. Conversely, cargo forwarding generates greater industry-driven impact by leveraging digital convenience to expand clients' geographic reach and reconfigure cargo information flows across air-sea and mainland interfaces. Interestingly, even modest-scale sectors (e.g., shipping insurance) can exert influence comparable to that of larger sectors, particularly during financial crises. Results suggest that enhanced integration of port and shipping services, facilitated by growing cargo forwarding and sea shipping connectivity, could transform ports' limited reach into broader growth opportunities, revitalizing the Hong Kong shipping ecosystem. This study advances knowledge of shipping ecosystems through empirical evidence and a replicable methodology, informing policy and industry decision-making.