“Push” meets “retention”: How public transit satisfaction moderates new-energy vehicle incentive policies in China

This study investigates the moderating role of public transit (PT) service quality in the relationship between government incentives and the adoption of new-energy vehicles (NEVs). Focusing specifically on habitual transit users, it examines whether high PT satisfaction can counteract the policy-driven shift towards car ownership and promote sustainable urban mobility. An integrated analytical framework is developed using a Hybrid Choice Model and survey data collected from Dalian, China. The framework simultaneously evaluates the interaction between “push” effect of policy interventions (e.g., subsidies, usage privileges, infrastructure) and the “retention” effect of multi-dimensional PT satisfaction (e.g., safety, reliability, comfort). The results show that: 1) policy interventions have a significant positive association with the adoption of NEVs; 2) PT satisfaction is significantly negatively associated with the intention to adopt NEVs; and 3) the interaction effect between policy interventions and PT satisfaction are significantly negative, indicating that the positive association between policy interventions and adoption intention is weaker among individuals with higher PT satisfaction. Conversely, in areas with lower satisfaction, incentives have a stronger effect. In addition, socio-demographic factors (e.g., gender, age, income, education, and pre-existing vehicle ownership) and psychological constructs (e.g., subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, subjective attitude) also significantly impact purchase intentions. The findings suggest that in order to promote sustainable urban mobility, transport-sector policymakers should design coordinated strategies that align the NEV industry development with the improvements in PT quality. Drawing on these findings and the index score analysis of key variables, context-specific recommendations are provided across different urban settings.