Strategies for net-zero emissions in railways: China's path to sustainable transformation

The transportation sector is a major source of global carbon emissions, yet the micro-level pathways for railway decarbonization remain underexplored. This study bridges this gap by proposing an integrated LMDI-LEAP analytical framework for developing zero-carbon strategies at the micro-level of railway enterprises. The framework employs an enhanced Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition to quantify the historical (2005-2023) contributions of key drivers, such as energy structure and transport modality, for a major Chinese railway enterprise (XRG). These quantified drivers then directly parameterize the scenario settings in a tailored Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to project future emission trajectories under six policy pathways. Then, strategies are formulated by comparing the mitigation potential across these simulated scenarios. The core findings are threefold. First, absolute CO2 emissions rose to 3.50 million tonnes by 2023. Second, decomposition of driving factors identifies electrification as the most effective lever, while improvements in internal combustion locomotive efficiency paradoxically increased emissions due to a rebound in transport volume. Third, projection of mitigation potential demonstrates that only an integrated policy scenario can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Crucially, freight transport accounts for 55–70% of the total reduction potential, marking it as the priority sector for intervention. This research provides a novel and replicable analytical framework for enterprise-level decarbonization planning, bridging the gap between macro policy goals and micro-level operational realities.