Transit demand response to fuel pricing vs. supply disruption policies: Evidence from Peshawar's dual-fuel context

Reliance on private cars as the default mode of urban mobility causes congestion, high fuel consumption, as well as degradation of the environment and public health. Green (public transit) and active transport are fundamental to sustainable mobility. To encourage public transit use, fuel policies are widely implemented. Despite the availability of data, key knowledge gaps exist: past studies have treated fuel pricing policies and fuel supply disruption policies as identical. Moreover, no integrated analysis exists examining how these distinct policies reshape public transit demand—particularly in developing cities where traffic mix is dominated by gasoline-powered motorcycles that remain cost-competitive with public transit for short trips, and private vehicles predominantly operate on dual-fuel systems. Peshawar, Pakistan, presents a unique context for exploring this gap. Nearly half of private vehicles in the country operate on dual-fuel systems that use both gasoline and compressed natural gas (CNG). This study addresses the gap by analyzing high-frequency hourly ridership data from Peshawar's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system during two distinct fuel policy interventions: (Event A: Fuel Pricing Policy) an unprecedented 66% gasoline price surge (GPH) (May–July 2022), and (Event B: Fuel Disruption Policy) a one-month government-imposed CNG supply shutdown (CSD) (January 2023). Using Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) hour-by-hour Causal Impact analysis, we find that GPH had no significant impact, whereas the subsequent CSD produced stronger and more temporally consistent effects across different periods of the day. The impact of CSD in the early morning was insignificant; the morning peak showed an increase of ∼23%. The impact remained persistent during the midday off-peak with an average increase of ∼17% and intensified to ∼23% in the evening peak and ∼32% in the late evening. These findings demonstrate how fuel supply policies significantly influence public transport usage. By quantifying ridership elasticity, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers to integrate energy resilience into transit planning, optimize service delivery during fuel crises, and apply a replicable framework for cities navigating energy transitions.