IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v181y2026ics0967070x26000703.html

Modeling competitive demand dynamics in multi-airport regions using time-series econometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Seum, Rashedul Islam
  • Abdelghany, Khaled
  • Abdelghany, Ahmed

Abstract

Understanding the interaction among co-located airports is critical for accurate demand forecasting and air service planning. In regions with overlapping catchment areas, airline decisions at one airport can affect demand at the other. Nonetheless, few studies have quantified these interactions or their temporal dynamics. This study presents an applied empirical analysis using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX) framework to quantify cross-airport demand dynamics in multi-airport regions. First, we develop SARIMAX-based demand models for 16 U.S. metropolitan areas to evaluate how changes in seat capacity and average airfare at one airport are associated with demand shifts at both the focal and its co-airport. Second, we conduct a detailed market-level case study of the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area, examining how demand in shared origin markets from Atlanta (ATL), Seattle (SEA), and Phoenix (PHX) is distributed between Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). Enhanced service levels at one airport tend to coincide with rising demand at that airport and reduced demand at its co-airport. These insights provide an evidence base for transport policymakers, airline managers, and airport authorities to coordinate slot allocation, manage congestion, and plan infrastructure investments across multi-airport systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Seum, Rashedul Islam & Abdelghany, Khaled & Abdelghany, Ahmed, 2026. "Modeling competitive demand dynamics in multi-airport regions using time-series econometrics," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:181:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x26000703
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X26000703
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:181:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x26000703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.