Transport rebound effect in BRICS: A panel threshold analysis of income and green innovation

Energy efficiency (EE) has emerged as a central policy objective, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as transportation. The rebound effect (RE) may offset the anticipated energy savings from EE improvements, thereby diminishing their overall effectiveness. Using a two-step methodology, this study examines the rebound effect in the transport sector of BRICS countries from 1990 to 2023. Initially, transport efficiency is estimated via stochastic frontier analysis; subsequently, the extent of the RE is quantified. In addition, the study explores the non-linear relationship between EE and transport energy consumption (TEC) using income and green innovation as threshold variables. The results indicate a rebound effect of 84% for the BRICS panel, with country-specific estimates of 84% for Brazil, 64% for Russia, 88% for India, 72% for China, and 105.9% for South Africa. The analysis further reveals that the rebound effect intensifies beyond the threshold income level, whereas green innovation plays a mitigating role. These findings underscore the need for stringent and targeted transport energy efficiency policies. In particular, fostering green technological innovation and addressing income-related disparities are critical for mitigating the rebound effect and achieving sustainable energy savings in the transport sector.