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A latent risk factor analysis guiding policy interventions for inland maritime safety

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  • Yin, Jingbo
  • Khan, Rafi Ullah
  • Asad, Mujtaba
  • Wang, Xinbo
  • Yang, Zaili

Abstract

Inland waterway safety is a pressing policy priority in China's transport sector, where effective regulation and targeted interventions are vital to managing accident risks in the world's busiest inland shipping network. While policymakers have increasingly focused on this issue, the causal mechanisms shaping accident severity remain insufficiently understood. This study applies Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to quantify the influence of four latent constructs, Ship Characteristics, Environmental Conditions, Operational Risk, and Crew & Equipment, on inland maritime accident outcomes. Constructs were validated through principal component analysis, and the model achieved excellent fit (χ2/df = 1.363; RMSEA = 0.022; CFI = 0.94). Results show that Operational Risk (β = 0.84) and Crew & Equipment (β = 0.70) are the strongest predictors of severity. These insights highlight that the policy needs to strengthen operational oversight, crew training, and equipment standards. The proposed framework provides a transferable, evidence-based tool for enhancing safety governance in inland waterway transport both within China and globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Jingbo & Khan, Rafi Ullah & Asad, Mujtaba & Wang, Xinbo & Yang, Zaili, 2026. "A latent risk factor analysis guiding policy interventions for inland maritime safety," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:180:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x26000673
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104057
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