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Policy-mix complexity and carbon emissions: evidence from China's EV industry

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  • Zhao, Xiaolei
  • Li, Xuemei
  • Yang, Lingrun

Abstract

China's electric vehicle (EV) policies, designed to address the energy crisis and improve urban air quality, exhibit significant policy-mix complexity (PC). This study examines the effect of PC on carbon emissions using panel data from 280 cities in China. Findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between PC and carbon emissions, with moderately complex policies most effective in reducing emissions. This causal U-shaped relationship is robustly identified using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) strategy with institutional and political instruments. Mechanism analysis reveals that this U-shape is driven by an underlying inverted U-shaped relationship between PC and key pathways: market uptake, infrastructure investment and technological innovation. Among PC dimensions, the number of policy instruments (PIs) and policy scope (PS) significantly reduce emissions, while policy types (PTs) and departments involved (DI) show no significant impact. Heterogeneity analysis indicates the U-shaped relationship holds in less developed areas and during 2003–2011. PIs are most effective in developed regions, while PS excels in the 2003–2011 period. This study improves theoretical insights in PC and provides practical guidance for designing EV policies to mitigate carbon emissions.

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  • Zhao, Xiaolei & Li, Xuemei & Yang, Lingrun, 2026. "Policy-mix complexity and carbon emissions: evidence from China's EV industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x25005190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103976
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