Policy optimization for shore power adoption in maritime ports: Assessing incentives under demand uncertainty

Shore power (SP) represents a critical solution for reducing maritime emissions, yet its widespread adoption faces persistent policy and infrastructural challenges. This study develops an integrated optimization framework addressing two interrelated barriers: chronic underutilization of SP infrastructure resulting from sub-optimal policy design, and emerging grid stability risks caused by concentrated SP demand. Through a novel nonlinear mixed-integer optimization model, we evaluate three policy instruments—electricity tariff subsidies (ETS), non-compliance penalties (NCP), and mandatory usage requirements (MU)—to quantify their cost-benefit trade-offs under different electricity tariff scenarios, with a particular focus on balancing the environmental benefits of SP adoption and the financial costs of policy implementing. The analysis demonstrates that policy effectiveness is highly sensitive to tariff structures, with optimized combinations simultaneously reducing implementation costs and maximizing uptake. Scenario simulations further reveal that while peak-period SP demand can significantly threaten grid reliability, strategic berth scheduling can mitigate these disturbances by 20–70 %. Validated through comprehensive case studies, the findings offer policymakers and port authorities practical tools to accelerate maritime electrification while maintaining energy security. The proposed methodology also offers transferable potential for renewable energy integration in ports and other energy-intensive industries.