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Effects of high-speed rail development on household welfare: Evidence from Chinese county-level administrative units using a Bayesian matching estimator

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  • Cheng, Shixiong
  • Jin, Meiling

Abstract

This study employs data from the 2019 Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and the staggered opening of high-speed rail (HSR) stations across Chinese counties to assess the impact of HSR on household welfare. Using a Bayesian regression–adjusted doubly robust matching estimator, we find that HSR significantly increases household income and consumption, with effects amplifying over time. The benefits are spatially heterogeneous: households nearer to provincial capitals and within 50 km of prefecture-level cities experience the largest welfare gains, while remote counties see negligible effects. Moreover, HSR contributes to narrowing the urban–rural income gap, highlighting its role in reducing regional welfare disparities. By integrating Bayesian estimation into micro-level welfare analysis, this study advances methodological applications in the field and offers policy insights for optimizing transportation infrastructure investment to maximize household welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Shixiong & Jin, Meiling, 2026. "Effects of high-speed rail development on household welfare: Evidence from Chinese county-level administrative units using a Bayesian matching estimator," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:176:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x25004512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103908
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