Regional differences in the recycling capacity of retired batteries for new energy vehicles in China: A perspective of sales volume forecasting

With the global energy transition and the advancement of carbon neutrality goals, new energy vehicles (NEVs), as a critical pathway to reduce fossil fuel dependence and carbon emissions, have experienced explosive growth in China. The first large-scale wave of battery retirements is imminent, and an inadequate recycling system could trigger environmental risks such as heavy metal pollution and resource waste. Although China has established a nationwide recycling network, significant regional imbalances persist at the provincial level. This study aims to reveal the distribution of end-of-life (EoL) batteries and the mismatch risks with recycling capacity, providing a basis for regionally differentiated policy formulation. To achieve this, a multi-factor model is developed integrating grey relational analysis, discrete wavelet transform, and bidirectional long short-term memory network to forecast NEVs sales across China's 31 provinces from 2024 to 2035. The dynamic Weibull distribution is employed to quantify EoL batteries, and the Pearson coefficient is utilized to evaluate recycling capacity matching. The results indicate that: (1) NEV market penetration will exceed 50 % by 2033, two years ahead of the policy target; (2) EoL batteries will surge starting in 2026, with Eastern China accounting for 42 % of the national total, emerging as the primary hub; (3) Recycling capacity gaps have already emerged in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, while other provinces will gradually enter phases of insufficient capacity post-2026. This study uncovers the spatio-temporal evolution of recycling networks and retirement volumes at the provincial scale, proposing optimization strategies such as regional risk alerts and cross-regional collaboration. These findings provide scientific support for governmental capacity planning and corporate investment decisions.