Carbon emissions from express logistics: Estimation and spatial analysis using origin-destination transportation flows

The rapid expansion in online retailing has led to a surge in carbon emissions from express logistics, but estimating these carbon emissions is hindered by limited data availability. This study utilizes origin-destination (O-D) road express logistics flow data comprising over 1.2 million records collected over one year from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region of China to estimate carbon emissions based on parcel weights and transportation distances. The total carbon emissions generated from road express logistics were estimated to be 44,268.1 tons. A spatial econometric interaction model is then utilized to explore spatial diffusion patterns and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity. The result suggests that the intra-city flow and intercity flow of carbon emissions exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. The spatial parameters demonstrate significant spatial autocorrelation in emission intensity in outflow cities, inflow cities, and O-D city pairs. A higher proportion of secondary industry added value to Gross Domestic Product in outflow cities and more advanced digitalization level in both outflow and inflow cities increase carbon emission intensity. In contrast, higher resident income level in outflow cities and infrastructure construction level in both outflow and inflow cities decrease carbon emission intensity. The impact of digitalization on carbon emission intensity is greater than that of other independent variables, with a 1 % increase corresponding to a 2.326 % rise in carbon emission intensity. Relevant policy implications are proposed in terms of accelerating infrastructure construction, optimizing industrial structure, incorporating digitalization into carbon governance, and strengthening regional cooperation to promote sustainable regional environment development.